@Article{AguiarCHPSGVV:2020:CrPaPr,
author = "Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de and Collste, David and Harmackov{\'a},
Zuzana V. and Pereira, Laura and Selomane, Odirilwe and Galafassi,
Diego and Van Vuuren, Detlef and Van der Leeuw, Sander",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Stockholm
University} and {Stockholm University} and {Stellenbosch
University} and {Stockholm University} and {Stockholm University}
and {PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency} and {Arizona
State University}",
title = "Co-designing global target-seeking scenarios: A cross-scale
participatory process for capturing multiple perspectives on
pathways to sustainability",
journal = "Global Environmental Change",
year = "2020",
volume = "65",
pages = "e102198",
month = "Nov.",
note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 2: Fome zero e Agricultura
sustent{\'a}vel}",
keywords = "Target-seeking scenarios, Pathways, Sustainable Development Goals,
Cross-scale analysis, Food system transformation, Three
Horizons.",
abstract = "The United Nations 2030 Agenda catalysed the development of global
target-seeking sustainability-oriented scenarios representing
alternative pathways to reach the Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs). Implementing the SDGs requires connected actions across
local, national, regional, and global levels; thus, target-seeking
scenarios need to reflect alternative options and tensions across
those scales. We argue that the design of global
sustainability-oriented target-seeking scenarios requires a
consistent process for capturing multiple and contrasting
perspectives on how to reach the goals, including the perspectives
from multiple scales (e.g. local, national, regional) and
geographic regions (e.g. the Global South). Here we propose a
novel approach to codesign global target-seeking scenarios,
consisting of (a) capturing global perspectives on pathways to the
SDGs through a review of existing global scenarios; (b) a
multi-stakeholder process to obtain multiple sub-global
perspectives on pathways to sustainability; (c) an analysis of
convergences, and crucially, divergences between global and
regional perspectives on pathways to reach the SDGs, feeding into
the design of new target-seeking scenario narratives. As a case
study, we use the results of the 2018 African Dialogue on The
World in 2050, discussing the future of agriculture and food
systems. The identified divergent themes emerging from our
analysis included urbanization, population growth, agricultural
practices, and the roles of different actors in the future of
agriculture. The results challenge some of the existing underlying
assumptions of the current sustainability-oriented global
scenarios (e.g. population growth, urbanisation, agricultural
practices), indicating the relevance and timeliness of the
proposed approach. We suggest that similar approaches can be
replicated in other contexts to better inform the process of
sustainability-oriented scenario co-design across scales, regions
and cultures. In addition, we highlight the implications of the
approach for scenario quantification and the evolution of modeling
tools.",
doi = "10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102198",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102198",
issn = "0959-3780",
language = "en",
targetfile = "aguiar_co.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}